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Sprott’s John Hathaway and Incrementum’s Ronald-Peter Stöferle said gold’s ability to rise even as bond yields climbed points to a possible change in its relationship with government bonds. They argued that central-bank buying and de-dollarization may signal a broader remonetization cycle, while stressing that institutional and retail participation in gold remains low.
Gold’s relationship with government bonds may be changing, according to Sprott managing partner John Hathaway and Incrementum partner Ronald-Peter Stöferle, who spoke at the Precious Metals Summit in Beaver Creek, Colorado, on September 22. They pointed to gold’s gains even as bond yields climbed since 2022, along with central-bank purchases and de-dollarization, as evidence that bullion could be taking on a more lasting role as a monetary alternative to bonds and the U.S. dollar.
Stöferle framed the central issue as whether gold is in a familiar cyclical bull market or a broader “remonetization cycle.” He said the evidence increasingly supports the latter interpretation. That is an assessment by the investor, not a confirmed change in monetary policy or proof that bond investors are moving into gold at scale.
Hathaway said the changing bond-gold relationship reflects weaker confidence in fixed income as a safe haven. The report said both speakers cited persistent central-bank buying, de-dollarization and the fact that gold has risen since 2022 during a period when bond yields also climbed. It did not provide figures for gold returns, central-bank purchases or the movement of investor funds.
The speakers also argued that institutional and retail participation in gold remains low, which they said could leave room for greater investment in bullion and mining shares if portfolios shift away from bonds. They described miners as undervalued, pointing to stronger balance sheets, margins and cash flow than a decade ago. Those points are the speakers’ views; the report did not include valuation measures or independent comparisons.
A Changing Safe-Haven Comparison
The argument matters because government bonds have often been treated as a defensive holding, while gold is commonly viewed as a store of value outside the financial system. If investors increasingly see bonds as less reliable protection, a shift toward bullion could affect how portfolios allocate capital and how markets assess the U.S. dollar’s role. The summit discussion describes a possible change in investor thinking, not evidence that this reallocation has already occurred broadly.
For mining companies, the potential consequence is access to more capital. Hathaway and Stöferle said low participation leaves room for new investment in bullion and mining shares. But that prospect depends on investors accepting their thesis and on company results and valuations; the report did not identify specific funds, flows or miners attracting new capital.
Stöferle also said the industry needs to make its case to generalist investors in more positive and direct terms, rather than relying mainly on warnings about crisis, inflation or financial collapse. How effectively companies communicate may influence investor interest, but the report does not establish that messaging alone would produce a change in demand.
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Gold and Yields Since 2022
The customary comparison between gold and bonds is often discussed through interest rates and bond yields: bonds provide income, while bullion does not. The Beaver Creek speakers focused on gold’s rise even as yields climbed since 2022, describing that pattern as a challenge to the usual inverse relationship. The report does not offer a complete time series or specify which bond yields or gold-price measures were used.
Their interpretation also draws on central-bank gold purchases and de-dollarization, a term for efforts to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar. The Northern Miner’s October 1 report summarized their comments at the September 22 summit and linked to the full conversation. It did not set out detailed purchase data, name particular central banks or document specific policy changes.
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How Broad Is the Shift?
The report does not establish whether gold’s gains alongside higher bond yields reflect a lasting structural shift or a market pattern that could change. It includes the speakers’ interpretation but no comparative performance data, investor-flow figures or survey evidence showing that bondholders are reallocating to gold.
It is also unclear how much central-bank buying has contributed, how widespread de-dollarization efforts are, and whether low institutional and retail participation can be quantified against a stated baseline. The report does not provide supporting valuation data for the claim that miners are undervalued. These gaps mean the speakers’ claims cannot be assessed from the published summary alone.
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Evidence to Watch in Markets
The report points readers to the full Beaver Creek conversation, but gives no schedule for further announcements or research from Hathaway, Stöferle or the summit. The next evidence needed to test their thesis would include sustained gold and bond-yield performance data, disclosed central-bank purchase figures and measures of investor holdings or fund flows.
Investors and mining companies may also watch whether the sector’s outreach to generalist investors leads to reported changes in participation. For now, a possible shift in gold’s role remains the speakers’ interpretation of market trends, rather than a confirmed change in portfolio allocation or monetary policy.
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Key Questions
What did the speakers say has changed between gold and bonds?
Hathaway and Stöferle said gold has risen since 2022 even as bond yields climbed, challenging the usual inverse relationship. The report does not provide the underlying price series or define the bond-yield measure.
What does “remonetization cycle” mean in this discussion?
Stöferle used the phrase to describe a possible broader return to gold as a monetary alternative, rather than a typical cyclical rise in its price. It is his interpretation, not a confirmed change in monetary arrangements.
Why do Hathaway and Stöferle think gold could attract more investment?
They said institutional and retail participation remains low and argued that changing views of bonds, central-bank buying and de-dollarization could encourage more interest in bullion and mining shares. The report gives no figures showing that such a shift is already under way.
Did the report prove that gold miners are undervalued?
No. The speakers described miners as undervalued and cited stronger balance sheets, margins and cash flow than a decade ago, but the report included no valuation analysis or company-level data to verify that view.
Source: rss
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