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The World Gold Council and Boston Consulting Group estimate the digital gold market could grow from $45 billion–$55 billion today to $160 billion–$170 billion by 2031. Their forecast depends on providers building investor trust, and the estimated $95 billion in potential new bullion demand excludes money moved from other gold products.
The World Gold Council and Boston Consulting Group estimate that digital gold could grow to $160 billion–$170 billion by 2031, from a current estimated $45 billion–$55 billion, if providers can build investor trust and improve access. The report says the expansion could bring $95 billion in new money into bullion, excluding funds shifted from other gold investments.
The report, titled Digital Gold: Unlocking a $700-billion opportunity, defines digital gold as access to physical bullion through digital tokens or online accounts, with a custodian holding the metal. Vaulted accounts make up 89% of the market, while tokens account for the remainder. The study excludes gold-backed exchange-traded funds, leveraged products and gold-backed stablecoins.
The central forecast is not the only scenario. If current barriers persist, the report’s lower-growth case puts the market at $70 billion–$80 billion by 2031; faster improvements could lift it to $270 billion–$280 billion. The authors estimate that about 65% of untapped demand could come from people who have not invested in gold before. That potential is separate from investors switching between existing gold products.
The researchers drew on a survey of more than 12,000 retail investors in 12 countries, including Canada, along with interviews with 20 industry experts. They used the responses to model 96 countries, which they say represent 98% of global investable wealth. Nearly nine in 10 survey respondents said they would consider digital gold under the right conditions, but the category remains less than 1% of the physical investment gold market.
Trust Could Determine Digital Gold Growth
The forecast points to a possible route for the gold industry to reach customers beyond people who already buy bullion or gold funds. The report estimates that roughly 65% of untapped demand is among people who have not invested in gold, suggesting digital accounts and tokens could serve as an entry point. The estimated $95 billion in additional bullion demand matters because it is intended to represent new investment, not simply a reshuffling of existing gold holdings.
But stated interest does not establish future purchases. The report finds that four in five investors prioritize trust in the provider. Respondents cited regulation, evidence that physical gold backs a product and a practical way to claim the metal as factors in deciding whether to invest. Security risks are also material: 44% said a major security breach would most undermine their confidence. The forecast therefore depends on safeguards and distribution, not just consumer awareness.
Access through familiar services appears linked to adoption. The report says uptake is up to seven times higher in markets where digital gold is available through banking, payment and multipurpose apps. That relationship does not by itself show that app availability causes higher adoption, but it highlights how distribution may affect whether interest becomes ownership.
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Survey Interest Versus Current Ownership
The report’s headline $700 billion figure describes an estimated additional-demand opportunity if all barriers to adoption disappeared immediately, using today’s population and wealth. It is not the report’s forecast for market size by 2031. The more limited central scenario is $160 billion–$170 billion by that year, with lower and higher cases reflecting different rates of change.
Awareness varies by market and age in the survey. It reached 76% in Indonesia and 71% in India, compared with 19% in Canada. Half of respondents aged 25–34 knew about digital gold, versus 23% of those aged 55 and older. These figures describe the surveyed respondents and should not be read as ownership rates: overall, the report says digital gold accounts for less than 1% of the physical investment gold market.
Some existing products may make physical redemption difficult for smaller investors. The report notes that certain providers offer redemption at only one location worldwide or require holdings equivalent to a 400-ounce bar. Lower minimums and more delivery locations could make redemption more practical, though the report does not say that providers have made those changes across the market.
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Forecasts Depend on Unresolved Risks
The projections are estimates, not confirmed outcomes. The report holds the gold price steady across its scenarios and excludes major hacks, fraud and custody failures. Those exclusions leave open how a serious incident, changing prices or other market conditions could affect demand and confidence.
Survey respondents’ willingness to consider a product does not guarantee that they will buy it, and the report’s adoption comparisons do not establish why uptake differs between markets. The report also does not specify how quickly regulation, redemption options or distribution through familiar apps will improve. The size of the $95 billion in potential new money is therefore tied to conditions that may not materialize at the projected pace.
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Providers Face Trust and Access Tests
Providers seeking to expand the market will need to address the issues identified by investors: clear rules, credible evidence of backing, secure custody and workable redemption. The report’s scenarios show that the outcome by 2031 could range from $70 billion–$80 billion to $270 billion–$280 billion, depending on how quickly barriers change.
The World Gold Council has said it plans to introduce Gold as a Service, shared infrastructure intended to help issuers with gold sourcing, custody, compliance and redemption. The council outlined the proposal in March. The source report does not provide a launch date or details on which providers will use the service, leaving its contribution to market growth uncertain.
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Key Questions
What is digital gold?
In the report, digital gold means access to physical bullion through a digital token or online account, while a custodian stores the metal. The study excludes gold-backed exchange-traded funds, leveraged products and gold-backed stablecoins.
How large could the market become by 2031?
The central estimate from the World Gold Council and Boston Consulting Group is $160 billion–$170 billion, compared with an estimated $45 billion–$55 billion today. Their lower and higher scenarios are $70 billion–$80 billion and $270 billion–$280 billion.
Does the $95 billion estimate include money moving from other gold investments?
No. The report says the estimated $95 billion in new bullion demand excludes money shifted from other gold products. It is presented as potential new money, not as a measure of transfers from funds or other gold holdings.
What could stop digital gold from growing as projected?
The report identifies trust, regulation, security, proof of backing and redemption access as barriers. It also says the forecasts exclude major hacks, fraud and custody failures, any of which could affect confidence.
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